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Sunday, August 27, 2006
The Anderson Cooper Rule
"Is Anderson Cooper in Tampa yet?" That's StormTrack's latest headline. Definitely not a good sign. I have accordingly formulated a new rule of thumb that is potentially life-saving: The Anderson Cooper Rule. Anywhere you see Anderson Cooper in front of a camera, get away FAST. Why? Take a look:
As always, StormTrack has the latest:
Currently, Ernesto is surrounded by very favorable environmental conditions. There is low shear (Figure 4) and the upper-level outflow is strengthening. Both of these factors are what is providing the environment for rapid intensification. In addition, these two parameters are forecast to only get better with time for Ernesto. Also, Ernesto is currently over extremely warm sea-surface temperatures and is forecast to continue over these warm waters, except for when the storm is over land. Any shift in the forecast track will have significant effects on the intensity forecast and for that reason, folks on the Florida coast need to realize that there is very real threat of a Category 3+ hurricane making landfall in the next 4 days.
Update: from Chris Mooney at The Intersection:
Ernesto is now a Category 1 hurricane, and appears to be one of those spooky ones that comes up through the Caribbean bouncing off of islands as if in a pinball machine, before finally expending its fury against the Gulf Coast. "Unfortunately," in the words of forecaster Stacy Stewart, the track has recently been adjusted so that Ernesto could be aimed towards some very vulnerable areas of Florida, namely, the Keys and Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg. Of course, anything could still happen, but the new projected track is a disturbing one. Moreover, the NHC sees little reason not to expect a major hurricane at landfall. It is going to be an interesting few days, to say the least...
Posted by Will at August 27, 2006 12:25 PM in In the News